Understanding Syria's War, One Step at a Time

On December 8, 2024, the curtain finally fell on Assad's barbaric dynasty—a regime that had gripped Syria for over five decades. Bashar al-Assad, the once unyielding president, fled to Moscow, leaving behind a fractured nation governed by a complex mosaic of rebel factions. These groups, shaped by years of civil war, reflect the diverse ideological, ethnic, and regional divides that now dominate Syria’s post-Assad power dynamics.

Syrians remove a statue of Hafez al-Assad, the father of Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus on Monday. Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/syria-assad-was-overthrown-what-happened-rcna183945

With the recent fall of Damascus following a ten-day rebel offensive, the moment seems appropriate for reflection. The spark that ignited Syria’s descent into full-blown conflict was the pro-democracy Arab Spring protests. Inspired by waves of uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, Syrians took to the streets on March 15, 2011, demanding political reforms, the restoration of civil rights, and an end to the state of emergency that had suffocated the nation since 1963.

However, these peaceful protests were met with shocking brutality. By the sixth month, rights groups reported over 2,000 deaths, prompting immediate international condemnation and calls for intervention. Rights organisations highlighted the regime's widespread use of force against civilians, revealing the war’s staggering toll. Hundreds of thousands have since been killed, and more than half the country’s prewar population—have been displaced.

The Early Opposition: FSA

Back in July 2011, as the uprising was still gathering momentum, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) emerged as the first organised opposition force. Formed by defectors from Assad’s military, the FSA aimed to resist the regime’s brutality and push for a democratic Syria.

However, infighting, a lack of funding, and threats from rising rival Islamist groups began to erode its strength. By August 2016, Turkey stepped in to regroup and reorganise. This effort culminated in Operation Euphrates Shield, bringing together various rebel factions (including former FSA fighters) to form the Syrian National Army (SNA)—also known as the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (TFSA).

Fighters in a faction of the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army man at a checkpoint in the Tal Battal area near al-Bab city on 26 September 2023. Source: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/who-are-syrian-national-army

With Turkey firmly in control, the SNA focuses on securing Turkish interests in northern Syria, particularly countering the Islamic State (ISIS) and restraining the growing influence of Syrian Kurdish troops led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), both of which Ankara labels as terrorist organisations.

Jabhat al-Nusra vs. ISIS

By early 2012, as Assad’s brutal crackdown intensified, extremists found opportunities to establish themselves amid the unrest stemming from the civil war. Jabhat al-Nusra, in January 2012, announced itself as al-Qaeda’s official branch in Syria, with Ayman al-Zawahiri, rallying Sunni Muslims worldwide to join the jihad against Assad. With battlefield victories and a steady influx of recruits, Jabhat al-Nusra rapidly became one of the most formidable forces opposing the Assad regime.

At the heart of this group’s rise is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who is an important figurehead even in the current state of post-Assad Syria. Jolani’s journey began in Iraq, where he worked alongside al-Qaeda leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who sent Jolani to Syria with funding to establish Jabhat al-Nusra as a covert extension of AQI. The FSA and the Nusra front differed in their ideological approaches and openly disagreed with each other. This ideological dispute was a cause for concern as Western leaders who wanted to arm the rebels to fight in their anti-Assad fight worried about the weapons falling into the wrong hands. Western leaders and the FSA fought for democracy in Syria, but Nusra was interested in the creation of Syria as an Islamic state ruled under Sharia. Further confusion and division unravelled in 2013 when Baghdadi unilaterally declared a merger between AQI and Nusra, forming the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Levant (ISIL).

Jolani rebranded al-Nusra Front as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham in 2016. The following year, it became Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q0w1g8zqvo

Jolani opposed this move, split from AQI, rebranding Jabhat al-Nusra as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, the group that would later rebrand itself as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and reposition its strategic direction. For Jolani, this decision reinforced its position as a dominant force in the anti-Assad movement while distancing it from ISIS’s notorious extremism, opting for a pragmatic approach that focused on consolidating local support rather than the radical al-Qaeda ideological approach. In January 2014, ISIS expelled the Nusrah Front from Al-Raqqah, Syria, and used the city as its exclusive territorial base. This internal jihadist drama deepened the fragmentation of Syria’s opposition and turned the war into a multi-front conflict.

Kurdish Forces and the U.S. Alliance

At the same time that FSA and ISIS were looking to materialise their goals for Syria amidst the chaos of the civil war, Kurdish forces sought to consolidate control over northern Syria, establishing the autonomous region of Rojava. Their efforts clashed with ISIS, whose ambition to establish a caliphate directly threatened Kurdish territorial gains. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed coalition of Kurdish-led militias, became the main ground force fighting ISIS. Militarily led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the SDF’s ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)—a group Turkey considers a terrorist organisation—strained U.S.-Turkey relations.

Syrians sit in the back of a truck as they flee the city of Afrin in northern Syria after Turkish forces and their allies took control of the Kurdish-majority city on March 18, 2018. Source: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-turkey-and-armed-kurdish-groups

In early 2018, Turkey expanded its operations, seizing Afrin, a Kurdish enclave in northwestern Syria, which escalated tensions with the Kurds. The conflict took a sharp turn in October 2019 when U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly withdrew American troops from the Syria-Turkey border. Seizing the opening, Turkey’s President Erdogan launched a military campaign alongside Syrian rebel allies, capturing towns, displacing hundreds of thousands, and leaving the Kurds to fend for themselves. Thus forcing the SDF to seek assistance from the Assad regime, leading to the return of regime forces to Kurdish-held territories.

External Players and Proxy Wars

The complexity of the Syrian struggle extends beyond internal factions. As the conflict deepened, both pro- and anti-regime forces became increasingly dependent on external sponsors. Iran and Russia were Assad’s loyal patrons. Iran’s involvement was driven by its strategic goal of securing a land corridor to its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, enabling the transfer of arms and support to bolster the group’s military strength. Russia, on the other hand, provided vital military assistance, including extensive airpower, motivated by longstanding historical ties and its strategic interests in the region. Assad’s dependence on external aid became essential for the regime's survival.

Assad’s regime became synonymous with arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, sexual violence, and mass surveillance. Between 2011 and 2021, the Assad regime was responsible for the deaths of 306,887 civilians, including 27,126 children. The use of chemical weapons—such as chlorine bombs and sarin gas—against civilians drew sharp international condemnation, with the first documented attack occurring on December 23, 2012. This marked a turning point, amplifying human rights concerns and drawing foreign attention to Syria's growing humanitarian crisis.

By September 2013, the Obama administration decided to act, pressuring Assad to dismantle his chemical weapons arsenal. The intervention was precise but far from decisive, leaving the broader conflict to persist.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/1/who-controls-what-in-syria-in-maps

In September 2014, the U.S.-led coalition, joined by the UK, France, Jordan, Turkey, Canada, and Australia—launched air campaigns against the Islamic State (ISIS) and Jabhat al-Nusra. Fueled by America’s longstanding grudge against al-Qaeda, rooted in 9/11 and other attacks, the campaign sought to cripple ISIS rather than directly challenge Assad’s regime. By 2019, the U.S.-led coalition and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had reduced ISIS territory to a mere 2% of its former expanse. The Pentagon declared the caliphate dismantled, though scattered ISIS militants persisted in Syria and Iraq.

The Final Chapter: Assad’s Fall

A fragile cease-fire in 2020 temporarily cooled hostilities in Turkey-controlled northwest Syria. Meanwhile, Assad, propped up by unwavering support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, maintained his grip on most of the country.

After years of stalemate, the conflict reignited in 2024. Rebel forces regrouped, while Assad’s greatest backers, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, found themselves distracted by their own geopolitical conflicts. As their grip loosened, Syria’s battlefield, once again, became a place of shifting alliances and uncertain futures.

Renewed rebel offensives in 2024 tested the regime’s resilience. With Russia preoccupied by its war in Ukraine and Iran weakened by the Israel-Hamas conflict, Assad’s critical allies faltered. By November, key cities like Aleppo, Homs, and Daraa fell to rebel forces in swift succession.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2ex7ek9pyeo

On December 8, Damascus fell, and Assad fled to Moscow, an exit as unceremonious as it was inevitable. The decisive advances of the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), partnered with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), left the regime with little resistance. Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, emerged as the face of the rebel victory. Yet even as Jolani proclaimed a vision for an “inclusive” Syria, reports surfaced of SNA forces targeting Kurdish groups.

What is next for Syria?

The collapse of the Assad regime has left Syria vulnerable and its future uncertain. In the east, Kurdish-led forces have taken full control of Deir El-Zour, though remnants of ISIS persist in the Syrian desert. In the north, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army remains a significant force, closely aligned with Ankara's ambitions. Meanwhile, HTS—led by the pragmatic-sounding Abu Mohammed al-Jolani—claims to advocate for peace and democracy. However, doubts persist due to its al-Qaeda roots and a history of infighting with other rebel factions.

A transitional government, headed by Mohammed al-Bashir, has pledged stability but faces immense challenges. On December 15, 2024, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed “direct contact” with HTS rebels—a surprising move given that Washington has designated HTS a terrorist organization since 2018. Western, Arab, and Turkish leaders cautiously support a vision of a unified, peaceful Syria, though their optimism is tempered by the region’s fraught history.

Is this Syria’s long-awaited liberation or the prelude to further chaos? The comparisons are hard to avoid: Afghanistan, Libya, and Yemen—nations where revolution brought fleeting hope, only to descend into turmoil and human rights crises. Whether Syria’s story will echo theirs remains to be seen. For now, the world watches as the next chapter of Syria’s history unfolds—one that could signify either hard-won progress or compromised peace where history stubbornly repeats itself.

Source

Syria’s Crisis and the Global Response (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/syrias-crisis-and-global-response)
Syria’s Civil War: The Descent Into Horror (https://www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war)
After Fall of Assad Dynasty, Syria’s Risky New Moment (https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/after-fall-assad-dynasty-syrias-risky-new-moment)
Who are the rebels in Syria? (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo)
Turkey and the armed Syrian opposition: From Free Syrian Army to Syrian National Army (https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2019/strategies-of-turkish-proxy-warfare-in-northern-syria/1-turkey-and-the-armed-syrian-opposition-from-free-syrian-army-to-syrian-national-army/)
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Assad exhibited little of the tackiness of Iraq’s Saddam. But his rule was just as brutal (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/12/middleeast/assad-brutal-rule-syria-intl-hnk/index.html)
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